全球大宗商品期貨及期權分析

㈠ 分析期權與期貨交易的共同點和差異，並說明各有什麼優勢

期權是指在未來一定時期可以買賣的權力，是買方向賣方支付一定數量的金額（指權利金）後擁有的在未來一段時間內（指美式期權）或未來某一特定日期（指歐式期權）以事先規定好的價格（指履約價格）向賣方購買或出售一定數量的特定標的物的權力，但不負有必須買進或賣出的義務。
期權交易事實上是這種權利的交易。買方有執行的權利也有不執行的權利，完全可以靈活選擇。 期權分場外期權和場內期權。場外期權交易一般由交易雙方共同達成。

期權（Option），它是在期貨的基礎上產生的一種金融工具。從其本質上講，期權實質上是在金融領域中將權力和義務分開進行定價，使得權力的受讓人在規定時間內對於是否進行交易，行使其權力，而義務方必須履行。在期權的交易時，購買期權的和約方稱作買方，而出售和約的一方則叫做賣方；買方即是權力的受讓人，而賣方則是必須履行買方行使權力的義務人。 具體的定價問題則在金融工程學中有比較全面的探討。

期權主要有如下幾個構成因素：①執行價格（又稱履約價格〕。期權的買方行使權利時事先規定的標的物買賣價格。②權利金。期權的買方支付的期權價格，即買方為獲得期權而付給期權賣方的費用。③履約保證金。期權賣方必須存入交易所用於履約的財力擔保，④看漲期權和看跌期權。看漲期權，是指在期權合約有效期內按執行價格買進一定數量標的物的權利；看跌期權，是指賣出標的物的權利。當期權買方預期標的物價格會超出執行價格時，他就會買進看漲期權，相反就會買進看跌期權。

按執行時間的不同，期權主要可分為兩種，歐式期權和美式期權。歐式期權，是指只有在合約到期日才被允許執行的期權，它在大部分場外交易中被採用。美式期權，是指可以在成交後有效期內任何一大被執行的期權，多為場內交易所採用。
（2）看跌期權：l月1日，銅期貨的執行價格為1750 美元／噸，A買入這個權利．付出5美元；B賣出這個權利，收入5美元。2月1日，銅價跌至1 695美元／噸，看跌期權的價格漲至55美元。此時，A可採取兩個策略：

行使權利一一一A可以按1695美元／噸的中價從市場上買入銅，而以1 750美元／噸的價格賣給B，B必須接受，A從中獲利50美元（1750一1695一5），B損失50美元。

售出權利一一A可以55美元的價格售出看跌期權。A獲利50美元（55一5〕。

如果銅期貨價格上漲，A就會放棄這個權利而損失5美元，B則凈得5美元。

通過上面的例子，可以得出以下結論：一是作為期權的買方（無論是看漲期權還是看跌期權）只有權利而無義務。他的風險是有限的（虧損最大值為權利金），但在理論上獲利是無限的。二是作為期權的賣方（無論是看漲期權還是看跌期權）只有義務而無權利，在理論上他的風險是無限的，但收益顯有限的（收益最大值為權利金）。三是期權的買方無需付出保證金，賣方則必須支付保證金以作為必須履行義務的財務擔保。

期權是適應國際上金融機構和企業等控制風險、鎖定成本的需要而出現的一種重要的避險衍生工具，1997年諾貝爾經濟學獎授給了期權定價公式（布萊克-斯科爾斯公式）的發明人，這也說明國際經濟學界對於期權研究的重視。

期權合約的基本因素

所謂期權合約，是指期權買方向期權賣方支付了一定數額的權利金後，即獲得該的在規定的期限內按事先約定的敲定價格買進或賣出一定數量相關商品期貨合約權利的一種標准化合約，期權合約的構成要素主要有以下幾個：買方、賣方、權利金、敲定價格、通知和到期日等。

期權履約

期權的履約有以下三種情況

1 、買賣雙方都可以通過對沖的方式實施履約。

2 、買方也可以將期權轉換為期貨合約的方式履約（在期權合約規定的敲定價格水平獲得一個相應的期貨部位）。

3 、任何期權到期不用，自動失效。如果期權是虛值，期權買方就不會行使期權，直到到期任期權失效。這樣，期權買方最多損失所交的權利金。

期權權利金

前已述及期權權利金，就是購買或售出期權合約的價格。對於期權買方來說，為了換取期權賦予買方一定的權利，他必須支付一筆權利金給期權賣方；對於期權的賣方來說，他賣出期權而承擔了必須履行期權合約的義務，為此他收取一筆權利金作為報酬。由於權利金是由買方負擔的，是買方在出現最不利的變動時所需承擔的最高損失金額，因此權利金也稱作 " 保險金 " 。

期權交易原理

買進一定敲定價格的看漲期權，在支付一筆很少權利金後，便可享有買入相關期貨的權利。一旦價格果真上漲，便履行看漲期權，以低價獲得期貨多頭，然後按上漲的價格水平高價賣出相關期貨合約，獲得差價利潤，在彌補支付的權利金後還有盈作。如果價格不但沒有上漲，反而下跌，則可放棄或低價轉讓看漲期權，其最大損失為權利金。看漲期權的買方之所以買入看漲期權，是因為通過對相關期貨市場價格變動的分析，認定相關期貨市場價格較大幅度上漲的可能性很大，所以，他買入看漲期權，支付一定數額的權利金。一旦市場價格果真大幅度上漲，那麼，他將會因低價買進期貨而獲取較大的利潤，大於他買入期權所付的權利金數額，最終獲利，他也可以在市場以更高的權利金價格賣出該期權合約，從而對沖獲利。如果看漲期權買方對相關期貨市場價格變動趨勢判斷不準確，一方面，如果市場價格只有小幅度上漲，買方可履約或對沖，獲取一點利潤，彌補權利金支出的損失；另一方面，如果市場價格下跌，買方則不履約，其最大損失是支付的權利金數額。

期權交易與期貨交易的關系

期權交易與期貨交易之間既有區別又聯系。其聯系是：首先，兩者均是以買賣遠期標准化合約為特徵的交易；其次，在價格關繫上，期貨市場價格對期權交易合約的敲定價格及權利金確定均有影響。一般來說，期權交易的敲定的價格是以期貨合約所確定的遠期買賣同類商品交割價為基礎，而兩者價格的差額又是權利金確定的重要依據；第三，期貨交易是期權交易的基礎交易的內容一般均為是否買賣一定數量期貨合約的權利。期貨交易越發達，期權交易的開展就越具有基礎，因此，期貨市場發育成熟和規則完備為期權交易的產生和開展創造了條件。期權交易的產生和發展又為套期保值者和投機者進行期貨交易提供了更多可選擇的工具，從而擴大和豐富了期貨市場的交易內容；第四，期貨交易可以做多做空，交易者不一定進行實物交收。期權交易同樣可以做多做空，買方不一定要實際行使這個權利，只要有利，也可以把這個權利轉讓出去。賣方也不一定非履行不可，而可在期權買入者尚未行使權利前通過買入相同期權的方法以解除他所承擔的責任；第五，由於期權的標的物為期貨合約，因此期權履約時買賣雙方會得到相應的期貨部位。

期權交易的場所：

期權交易場所沒有需要特點場所，可以在期貨交易所內交易，也可以在專門的期權交易所內交易還可以在證券交易所交易與股權有關的期權交易。目前世界上最大的期權交易所是全球最大的期權交易所 芝加哥期權交易所(Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE)；歐洲最大期權交易所是歐洲期貨與期權交易所(Eurex)的前身為德意志期貨交易所(DTB)與瑞士期權與金融期貨交易所(Swiss Options ＆ Financ ial Futures Exchange, SOFFEX)；亞洲方面，韓國的期權市場發展迅速，並且其交易規模巨大，目前是全球期權發展最好的國家，中國香港地區以及中國台灣地區都有期權交易。國內方面，目前有包括鄭州商品交易所在內的幾家交易所已經對期權在中國大陸上市做出初步研究。

㈡ 國際大宗商品價格走勢圖怎麼分析

國際大宗商品定價的兩種方式
期貨定價主要適用於可以進行標准化合約處理的大宗商品，但是如果不能對交易數量和質量以及交易時間作出標准化的規定，那麼只能通過國際市場上的主要供需雙方通過商業談判來確定價格。
國際大宗商品定價主要有兩種方式：一種是通過期貨市場首先確定大宗商品的期貨合約價格，從而為大宗商品現貨貿易提供價格基準。在這種方式下，期貨市場成為大宗商品定價的關鍵。另外一種是大宗商品主要的供需雙方通過談判來確定基準價格，在這種方式下，供需雙方的市場結構、實力大小，甚至談判技巧都會影響大宗商品的價格。
國際上大部分大宗商品如農產品、金屬、能源產品都是通過期貨市場進行定價的，不同類型的大宗商品逐漸形成了各個基於期貨市場的定價中心。如銅、鋁、鉛、錫等金屬的價格主要在倫敦金屬交易所確定，大豆、玉米、小麥等農產品的價格主要在芝加哥商品交易所確定，原油等能源的價格主要在紐約商品交易所確定等等。

㈢ 期貨和期權各自的優勢

對的，不管是什麼樣的投資都是各有各的優勢的，只要你會投資的，就有機會盈利，所以說在寶星環球可以完全實現你這個願望的

㈣ 「期貨研究大宗商品」期權交易如何做好最佳選擇

如果選擇提前平倉,則獲利相對有限。若投資者認為後期不會跌破支撐位,且希望進一步提高獲利,可搭配賣出行權價為下方支撐位的看跌期權,

㈤ 期貨市場和期權市場有什麼區別 說得盡量簡單些 謝謝

期貨是指現在進行買賣，但是在將來進行交收或交割的標的物。期權是指在未來一定時期可以買賣的權力，是買方向賣方支付一定數量的金額（指權利金）後擁有的在未來一段時間內（指美式期權）或未來某一特定日期（指歐式期權）以事先規定好的價格（指履約價格）向賣方購買或出售一定數量的特定標的物的權力，但不負有必須買進或賣出的義務。

㈥ 國際大宗商品期權交易的發展狀況

The History of Futures

The history of futures trading is, in a sense, two histories, both focused on how people have tried to improve the effectiveness of the commercial marketplace. The early story is a tale of how people in an agrarian society used forward contracts (agreements to buy now, but pay and deliver later) as a means of getting farm commodities efficiently from procers to consumers, at established prices and delivery terms, and how those forward contracts evolved into futures contracts. The present day story explains how the futures instry reinvented itself in the latter part of the twentieth century, essentially by redefining the meaning of 「commodity,」 so that it could accommodate the needs of complex financial markets in a society whose economy was no longer based primarily on agriculture.

The Early Story

Commodity markets have existed for centuries around the world because procers and buyers of foodstuffs and other items have always needed a common place to trade. Cash transactions were most common, but sometimes 「forward」 agreements were also made – deals to deliver and pay for something in the future at a price agreed upon in the present. There are records, for example, of 「forward」 agreements related to the rice markets in seventeenth century Japan; most scholars agree that forward arrangements actually date back much farther in time.

The immediate predecessors of futures contracts were 「to arrive」 contracts. These were simple agreements to purchase designated goods when they arrived by ship, and they were used for centuries when shipping was the primary mode of international trade.

The first organized grain futures trading in the U.S. began in places such as New York City and Buffalo, but the development of 「modern」 futures, which are a unique type of forward agreement, began in Chicago in the 1840s. With the construction of the railroads, Chicago began to emerge as a center for transportation between midwestern procers and east coast population centers. The city was a natural hub for trade, but the trading that took place there was inefficient and unorganized until a group of Chicago-based business men formed the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago in 1848. The Board was a member-owned organization that offered a centralized location for cash trading of a variety of goods as well as trading of forward contracts. Members served as brokers who facilitated trading in return for commissions.

As trading of forward contracts increased, the Board decided that standardizing those contracts would streamline the trading and delivery processes. Instead of indivialized contracts, which took a great deal of time to negotiate and fulfill, people interested in the forward trading of corn at the Board, for example, were asked to trade contracts that were identical in terms of quantity, quality, delivery month and terms, all as established by the exchange. The only thing left for traders to negotiate was price and the number of contracts.

These standardized forwards were essentially the first modern futures contracts. They were unlike other forwards in that they could only be traded at the exchange that created them, and only at certain designated times. They were also different from other forwards in that the bids, offers and negotiated prices of the trades were made public by the exchange. This practice established futures exchanges as venues for 「price discovery」 in U.S. markets.

In contrast to customized contracts, standardized futures contracts were easy to trade, since all trades were simply re-negotiations of price, and they usually changed hands many times before expiration. People who wanted to make a profit based on a fortuitous price change, or alternatively, who wished to cut mounting losses as quickly as possible, could 「offset」 a futures contract before expiration by engaging in an opposite trade: buying a contract which they had previously sold (or 「gone short」), or selling a contract which they had previously bought (or 「gone long」).

The usefulness of futures trading became apparent, and a number of other futures exchanges were established throughout the country in the decades that followed. The Chicago Butter and Egg Board was founded in 1898 and evolved into Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in 1919. Futures exchanges also opened in Milwaukee, New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Memphis, New Orleans and elsewhere. Chicago, however, became the most influential and predominant location for futures trading in the U.S.

The Era of Financial Futures

Throughout the first seven decades of the twentieth century, the futures instry remained essentially as it had been – focused on the trading of futures on agricultural procts. But a remarkable change occurred in the instry in 1971, with the introction of futures based on financial procts.

A New Concept: Futures on Foreign Currencies

Until 1971, world currencies had been pegged to an international gold standard, but that year the gold standard was abolished and currency values were allowed to 「float.」 Leaders of CME recognized that a currency whose value was determined by market forces had become a commodity like any other, and therefore futures could be traded on it. There was (and still is) an enormous forward market for currency trading, but until then there were no exchange-traded, standardized futures on currencies. As with futures on agricultural commodities, currency futures offered an opportunity to hedge against risks in price changes, as well as to profit from changes in values. That year, CME formed the International Monetary Market (IMM), initially a separate exchange closely linked to CME, and hosted its first futures trades on foreign currencies.

The notion of trading futures on currencies was highly controversial. But the concept garnered credibility from the support of economist Milton Friedman, who pronounced that the IMM would 「enable the world to operate more smoothly and effectively.」 Friedman proved correct, and now currency futures have become an integral part of international finance.

Interest Rate Futures

For many people it is one thing to understand the agricultural futures markets and even currency futures, but quite another to begin to imagine futures on interest rates. Like agricultural procts and currencies, however, interest rates – the price of money – vary according to market pressures, and in this sense, they can also be viewed as a type of commodity. Since many businesses are subject to risk as rates change, the futures instry reasoned that interest rate futures could offer opportunities for hedging against rising or falling rates or capitalizing on rate changes, as did futures on other commodities. CME launched its first interest rate proct in 1976 – a 90-day U.S. Treasury bill futures contract – and over the next six years it became CME's most actively traded proct.

CME then proposed trading futures on interest rates paid for U.S. dollars on deposit overseas – bbed 「Eurodollars」 – and again broke new instry ground by making Eurodollar futures the first futures contract which did not feature an actual or physical delivery but rather used cash settlement. Cash settlement eliminated the difficulty of physically delivering interest obligations, such as Treasury bills or notes, and thereby expanded the range of procts upon which futures could feasibly be traded.

Stock Index Futures

Like currencies, interest rates, and crop prices, stock index values also vary according to numerous market pressures. Changes in index values can positively or negatively affect businesses that depend on them, such as mutual fund companies and pension funds. Stock indexes, then, also fit into the expanded definition of 「commodity.」 In the early 1980s, stock index values had become the barometers of overall health of the stock markets, and stock index futures drew an immediate audience because they enabled people to trade the values of 「the market」 without having to own any indivial shares.

CME launched its first stock index futures contract, the S&P 500® contract, in 1982. Stock index traders quickly learned that they could use the futures markets to hedge against falling prices and take advantage of rising prices. When a market move took place, traders could use index futures to either protect their investments or increase their position in the market without having to actually buy or sell stocks. Stock index futures are also appealing in that they are typically less costly and easier to buy and sell than buying and selling shares of hundreds or even thousands of stocks.

Quite clearly, trading futures on stock index levels was a far cry from trading on live cattle or corn. The futures instry, however, led by the innovative thinking at CME, had learned how to expand its markets and to meet the risk management needs of our complex, post-agrarian society. - Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.

如果追加到200分的話，我可以幫忙翻譯。謝謝

㈦ 全球各種指數對期貨的影響

各品種之間是有一定的相關性的。
但並非絕對相關性。

銅期貨作為一種製造業消費品，其相關性主要和產出國及消費國有關系，而非和所有品種都相關。

比如，銅牛市的出現，前提必須是消費大國經濟向好，有刺激消費的計劃。
而銅熊市的開始，也必須是消費大國的相關產業泡沫粉碎，才會反應在銅期貨上。

所以如果你想通過道氏理論中的一致性原則來驗證銅期貨，最好參照上證，深證的工業相關指數，道瓊斯三十種工業指數這一類消費國指數來進行驗證。

㈧ 分析期貨與期權的主要區別

簡單來說是這樣的：
1）期貨交易的時候未來的資產；交易雙方約定，在未來的某一個確定的時間，以一個確定的價格買進或者賣出資產。
就比如A和B協定，在未來第三個月的第一個星期日，A以10元/股的價格，從B那兒買進100股股票。當到期時，A就付給B1000元，B交割100股股票給A。
2）期權交易的是未來的一種選擇權。交易雙方中，一方支付另一方期權費，以買入在未來的某一個時期以某一個協定的價格，買入或賣出某一種標的資產的選擇權。
就比如，C和D交易一份期權，C花費8元錢從D那兒買入一份期權，這份期權賦予C在未來第三個月的第一個星期，以10元/股的價格買入100股股票的權利。
如果在到期的時候，股票市場價格高於10元，那麼C執行期權，以10元每股從D買入股票然後再按市場價賣出，那麼就有正的收益；如果到期的時候股票市場價格低於10元，那麼C就不執行期權，只損失期權費。

㈨ 這幾天，全球大宗商品市場受挫，它的主要原因有哪些目前關於市場的分析又是怎麼樣的

5月5日，國際油價出現暴跌，紐約原油期貨價格下跌近9%，跌破每桶100美元。同時，商品期貨也連續兩日遭受重挫。在大宗商品暴跌的背後，美元的強勁反彈無疑成為其中最為重要的誘因。

首先，由於美元是國際大宗商品的標價貨幣，因此，美元的走勢與國際大宗商品走勢有著天然的負相關關系。從近兩個交易日開，美指不斷上揚，周四更是報收於74.04，錄得逾六個多月來的最大單日漲幅，美元的上漲本身就對大宗商品價格造成了壓力。而從大宗商品整體的走勢看，CRB指數經歷了前兩個交易日的下跌後，目前已形成局部的M頭形態，技術上也存在下行的壓力。

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其次，追尋本輪大宗商品上漲的原因，其根本在於金融危機後美元超發導致的全球通脹的加劇。這種通脹的加劇不僅體現在大宗商品價格的上漲，更體現在大宗商品日益增強的金融屬性上。這種金融屬性加劇的結果就是大宗商品在資金爆炒的條件下，價格波動的加劇。因此，大宗商品的金融特性可以說在很大程度上放大了美元上漲的利空影響。

再次，從整個世界經濟的形勢看，隨著世界經濟緩慢的復甦及全球通脹的不斷加劇，各國逐步開始了加息的步伐，隨著美國第二輪量化寬松貨幣政策接近尾聲，國際普遍預期隨著美國經濟的不斷好轉，美國將不會進行第三輪的量化寬松政策。這意味著，世界各國以寬松貨幣拉動經濟的政策將告一段落，未來應對通脹將成為各國主要的政策目標，這對於大宗商品價格成了強烈的下跌預期，而藉由美元的反彈，這種預期也在市場中得到釋放。

如果說此次調整將成為大宗商品走勢的拐點，可能言之尚早，畢竟當前世界經濟的復甦仍不穩定，美聯儲也尚未明確表示緊縮貨幣的意圖，而昨日歐洲央行在通脹壓力不斷上漲的情況，依然決定維持利率不變，而中國緊縮貨幣的政策何時轉向仍難確定。因此，大宗商品未來的走勢將更多的取決於通脹壓力下，各國之間貨幣政策的博弈。